Argentina's presidential election headed for second round after no clear winner
Preliminary results put ruling coalition’s Daniel Scioli and opposition candidate, Mauricio Macri, neck and neck
Argentina’s voters set the stage for a bruising presidential run-off next month after a surprise first round on Sunday in which Daniel Scioli – the candidate of the ruling Peronist coalition – was denied an outright victory.
The centre-left candidate, who was endorsed by outgoing president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, was tipped by the exit polls to end the night with a comfortable lead.
But preliminary results showed both he and the pro-business Buenos Aires mayor, Mauricio Macri, were neck and neck on 35% each.
A large share of the vote was still to be counted in the capital, Buenos Aires, but it seems certain that neither man secured the necessary support to win outright, so they must now go head-to-head on 22 November.
The key to the final outcome is likely to be which of them can pick up the most support from third-placed Sergio Massa, a dissident Peronist, who won 21%.
Until the result, Scioli – a former racing boat champion – was the clear favourite, but the result was a disappointment to supporters. They had hoped a strong mandate would help them resist calls for drastic changes toKirchner’s leftwing policies that have been popular with the public, but left the economy with a host of problems.
At Scioli’s campaign bunker in central Buenos Aires, more than 1,000 supporters from union and social movements had gathered from early in the evening, eating grilled meat and drinking cold beer.
They waved flags and chanted, but the celebrations were muted. “Of course we’d rather have won outright this time, but we’re going to win anyway,” said Rosarrio Flores, a campaigner.
“We’re going to have to analyse the result and find our weak points so that we can do better.”
The Macri camp was jubilant at a second chance. Supporters yelled football chants of “Argentina, Argentina” as their candidate urged them to redouble their efforts in the second round.
Once again the economy is likely to dominate, with the main difference between the two rivals being the speed and scale at which they will introduce reforms.
Scioli has promised a gradual shift towards low inflation, balanced budgets and closer relations with foreign investors and international institutions. Traditional Peronist supporters in the unions and poorer districts of the city supported him in the hope he will continue generous welfare payments and can avoid the pain of fiscal austerity.
But he has not always seen eye to eye with the outgoing president.
Scioli, who lost his right arm in a powerboating race, is a protege of former president Carlos Menem, who pursued a fiscally conservative economic policy in the 1990s. In this campaign, he has offered tax cuts for the middle class and measures to lower inflation to single digits. He has also indicated that he would tone down the rhetoric over the Falkland Islands and explore better relations with the British government.
Fernández, however, appears hesitant to accept the need for change. Earlier in the day, she posed for pictures at the polling booth in Rio Gallegos, her base in the far south of Argentina, and declared satisfaction at what she insisted was a job well done. Compared with when her husband Nestor took office in 2003, the outgoing president said the country was no longer in crisis. “After three times, we are voting in an absolutely normal country,” she said. “No one has anything to fear economically.”
That is disputed by the opposition, who say the president has left the country with high inflation, depleted reserves and an acrimonious relationship with foreign hedge funds that has choked Argentina’s access to international capital markets.
Macri, a former president of Boca Juniors football club from the centre-right Cambiemos (“Let’s Change”) bloc, says he will move quickly to adopt a more business-friendly approach. If he wins, he says, he will dismantle capital controls and trade restrictions on his first day in office.
The opposition camp are also likely to continue to accuse Scioli of being too close to the outgoing president, who has been a polarising figure over the past 12 years .
“Cristina acted like a clamp around Scioli’s neck. She didn’t allow him to grow. People want a change,” said Senator Laura Alonso, of Macri’s PRO party.
While the unions and social movements are aggrieved at the second round, financial analysts predicted Argentina’s economy could feel immediate benefits. “The market prefers Macri, so stocks and bonds will go up,” said economist and political analyst Nicolás Dujovne. “Foreign investors feel he is more reliable and predictable.”
Voters are clearly less convinced of the need for change. Earlier in the day, in San Telmo, a central district close to the Casa Rosada presidential palace, people sauntered into booths at the cavernous National College of Buenos Aires to cast their ballots in cardboard boxes.
Maria Rodriguez, a street trader who voted before setting up her stall in the San Telmo market, said she had chosen Massa because the other main candidates were cynical opportunists. “Macri would probably be better for business, but I don’t like him,” she said. “He says lots of nice things, but I don’t find him convincing. The same is true of Scioli.”
As he left the voting booth, Eugene Pandiani, a dentist, said he had opted for Macri because he offered the biggest possibility of change. “After 12 years of Cristina and her husband, we need someone different. Her economic policies are wrong. There is a lot of corruption,” he said.
But traditional Peronist neighbourhoods remained loyal to their party’s candidate. In Buenos Aires’ working class district of La Boca, voters said the ruling coalition continued to deliver. “The Kirchners fixed the country. There are more jobs now,” said Leandro Elias, a delivery driver who said he would vote for Scioli. “He’ll be good for employment.”
Whoever wins could face a hostile legislature. The roughly 32 million voters in this geographically large nation also elected 24 of 72 senators and 130 of 257 deputies. Polls indicate that Scioli’s party, Front for Victory, could lose control of the lower house but increase their representation in the upper chamber.
No comments:
Post a Comment